NRL | Round 6

alphr.com.au

WST
Wests Tigers
VS
NEW
Knights
CAMPBELLTOWN SPORTS STADIUM, SYDNEY • SUNDAY 12 APR, 4:05 PM

AI Win Probability

52%KnightsFavourite

Wests Tigers

48%

Knights

52%

✨

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Knights a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Wests Tigers are stronger on paper across 6 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Knights counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Recent form favours Knights with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Wests Tigers by 2.5 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Knights to Win @2.23

Edge

+9.3%

Line / Spread

Knights +3.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Wests Tigers 1-12 @2.55

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 49.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Wests Tigers
WWLLL
26.0
Knights
WWWWL
25.2

Avg Conceded

22.0

Wests Tigers

21.6

Knights

Avg Margin

4.0

Wests Tigers

3.6

Knights

Run Metres

1445

Wests Tigers

1745

Knights

Line Breaks

2.5

Wests Tigers

4.0

Knights

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Wests Tigers
Wyatt Raymond41 games since 2012

Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

WST
29%2W 5L
NEW
20%1W 4L

Wests Tigers hold a 9‑point edge: 2W–5L (29%) vs Knights's 1W–4L (20%) across all games Wyatt Raymond has refereed for each side. His games average 50.2 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 59% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Wests Tigers an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 5 games for Knights — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

50.2 pts

Home Win %

59%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Knights lead 4-1
Apr 2025WST 20 - 4 NEW
Mar 2025WST 8 - 10 NEW
Aug 2024WST 18 - 34 NEW
May 2024WST 14 - 20 NEW
Jul 2023WST 18 - 34 NEW
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WST
1489Overall1478
NEW
ELO difference: +11 in favour of Wests Tigers

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

970Forwards1018
NEW +48
969Backs1013
NEW +44
952Halves1008
NEW +56
955Hooker948
Even

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WST
Stat
NEW
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
26.0pts
Avg Score
25.2pts
22.0pts
Avg Conceded
21.6pts
4.0pts
Avg Margin
3.6pts
1444.5m
Run Metres
1745.0m
2.5
Line Breaks
4.0
300.0
Tackles
300.0
12.0
Errors
12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Tigers
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Tigers
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Tigers
4
Halves Control9.0%
Tigers
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Knights
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Tigers
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Tigers

Model Confidence

52%

Knights predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: +2.5

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