AI Win Probability
Storm
60%
Warriors
40%
AI Match Overview
Storm hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Warriors are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Storm ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 49-point ELO rating advantage (1552 vs 1502). The margin model predicts Storm by 5.8 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.36
Edge
-9.9%
Line / Spread
Warriors +9.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Storm 1-12 @2.55
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | WWWLL | 31.6 |
Warriors | WWWLL | 28.4 |
Avg Conceded
16.8
Storm
18.4
Warriors
Avg Margin
14.8
Storm
10.0
Warriors
Run Metres
1965
Storm
1561
Warriors
Line Breaks
8.5
Storm
5.0
Warriors
Each team's win rate when Grant Atkins refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Grant Atkins officiates, Storm have won 34 of 51 games (67%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Warriors's 12 from 30 (40%). That's a 27‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 42.9 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
42.9 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Storm predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +5.8
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.