NRL | Round 6

alphr.com.au

CRO

Sharks

SYD

Roosters

OPTUS STADIUM, PERTH • SATURDAY 11 APR, 3:30 PM

AI Win Probability

55%RoostersFavourite

Sharks

45%

Roosters

55%

✨

AI Match Overview

Roosters hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Sharks are far from out of this at 45%. Sharks are stronger on paper across 6 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Roosters counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Sharks carry a 38-point ELO rating advantage (1569 vs 1530). The margin model predicts Roosters by 2.0 points with a combined total of 48.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Roosters to Win @1.85

Edge

+3.2%

Line / Spread

Roosters -1.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Roosters 1-12 @2.55

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 50.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Sharks	WWLLL	22.8
Roosters	WWLLL	18.8

Avg Conceded

23.6

Sharks

25.2

Roosters

Avg Margin

-0.8

Sharks

-6.4

Roosters

Run Metres

1607

Sharks

1612

Roosters

Line Breaks

5.0

Sharks

6.3

Roosters

Referee IndicatorAI

Favours Sharks

Todd Smith100 games since 2012

Each team's win rate when Todd Smith refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

CRO

69%9W 4L

SYD

58%7W 5L

Sharks hold a 11‑point edge: 9W–4L (69%) vs Roosters's 7W–5L (58%) across all games Todd Smith has refereed for each side. His games average 45.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 55% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Sharks an additional edge at home.

Avg Total

45.9 pts

Home Win %

55%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Sharks lead 3-2

Sep 2025CRO 20 - 10 SYD

Jul 2025CRO 31 - 18 SYD

May 2025CRO 16 - 42 SYD

May 2024CRO 38 - 30 SYD

Sep 2023CRO 12 - 13 SYD

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Sharks hold the ELO advantage (1569 vs 1530), but the market favours Roosters (@1.85).

The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

CRO

1569Overall1530

SYD

ELO difference: +38 in favour of Sharks

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1079Forwards1023

CRO +57

1070Backs1051

CRO +19

1042Halves1019

CRO +23

1029Hooker1035

Even

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CRO

Stat

SYD

2.0

Wins (Last 5)

2.0

22.8pts

Avg Score

18.8pts

23.6pts

Avg Conceded

25.2pts

-0.8pts

Avg Margin

-6.4pts

1607.0m

Run Metres

1611.7m

5.0

Line Breaks

6.3

300.0

Tackles

300.0

12.0

Errors

12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Sharks

Forward Pack12.0%

Sharks

Backline Quality10.0%

Sharks

Halves Control9.0%

Sharks

Recent Win Rate9.0%

—

Referee Tendency7.0%

Sharks

Venue Advantage7.0%

Sharks

Model Confidence

55%

Roosters predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 48 · Line: -2.0

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Braydon TrindallSharks

halfFair 2.102+ 14%

$3.80

+21.4% edge

Model

48%

Market

26%

Confidence

48%

Billy BurnsSharks

forwardFair 2.572+ 9%

$4.80

+18.1% edge

Model

39%

Market

21%

Confidence

39%

Toby RudolfSharks

forwardFair 4.752+ 2%

$12.00

+12.7% edge

Model

21%

Market

Confidence

21%

Blayke BraileySharks

hookerFair 3.822+ 4%

$6.75

+11.4% edge

Model

26%

Market

15%

Confidence

26%

Teig WiltonSharks

forwardFair 3.152+ 6%

$3.90

+6.1% edge

Model

32%

Market

26%

Confidence

32%

Briton NikoraSharks

benchFair 3.562+ 4%

$4.40

+5.3% edge

Model

28%

Market

23%

Confidence

28%

Angus CrichtonRoosters

forwardFair 2.972+ 6%

$3.50

+5.1% edge

Model

34%

Market

29%

Confidence

34%

Nat ButcherRoosters

benchFair 6.672+ 1%

$9.25

+4.2% edge

Model

15%

Market

11%

Confidence

15%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Mark NawaqanitawaseRoosters

backFair 4.022+ 27%

$7.50

+11.5% edge

Model

25%

Market

13%

Confidence

25%

Daniel TupouRoosters

backFair 6.062+ 14%

$9.50

+6.0% edge

Model

17%

Market

11%

Confidence

17%

Braydon TrindallSharks

halfFair 9.082+ 14%

$19.00

+5.8% edge

Model

11%

Market

Confidence

11%

Billy BurnsSharks

forwardFair 11.922+ 9%

$23.00

+4.0% edge

Model

Market

Confidence

Briton NikoraSharks

benchFair 17.862+ 4%

$51.00

+3.6% edge

Model

Market

Confidence