AI Win Probability
Sharks
60%
Warriors
40%
AI Match Overview
Sharks hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Warriors are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Sharks ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Recent form favours Warriors with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sharks. The margin model predicts Sharks by 4.0 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.57
Edge
-0.9%
Line / Spread
Warriors +4.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Sharks 1-12 @2.55
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | WWLLL | 22.4 |
Warriors | WWWLL | 30.8 |
Avg Conceded
21.6
Sharks
17.4
Warriors
Avg Margin
0.8
Sharks
13.4
Warriors
Run Metres
1634
Sharks
1602
Warriors
Line Breaks
5.0
Sharks
5.7
Warriors
Each team's win rate when Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Sharks hold a 8‑point edge: 7W–5L (58%) vs Warriors's 5W–5L (50%) across all games Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski has refereed for each side. His games average 41.2 pts, sitting close to the league average. Away teams perform unusually well in his matches — home sides win just 44%, below the ~52% league average.
Avg Total
41.2 pts
Home Win %
44%
Home Bias
Leans away
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Sharks predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: +4.0
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.