Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
41%
Bulldogs
59%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Rabbitohs are far from out of this at 41%. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Recent form favours Rabbitohs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 1.3 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @2.00
Lost ✗
Edge
+10.6%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs +1.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Bulldogs 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | WWWLL | 24.8 |
Bulldogs | WWLLL | 18.6 |
Avg Conceded
21.6
Rabbitohs
24.4
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
3.2
Rabbitohs
-5.8
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1760
Rabbitohs
1824
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
5.5
Rabbitohs
4.0
Bulldogs
Each team's win rate when Todd Smith refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Bulldogs hold a 14‑point edge: 4W–4L (50%) vs Rabbitohs's 4W–7L (36%) across all games Todd Smith has refereed for each side. His games average 45.8 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
45.8 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -1.3
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.