Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Warriors
62%
Wests Tigers
38%
AI Match Overview
Warriors hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Wests Tigers are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Warriors ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Warriors carry a 166-point ELO rating advantage (1584 vs 1417). The margin model predicts Warriors by 4.6 points with a combined total of 48.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.22
Lost ✗
Edge
-16.0%
Line / Spread
Wests Tigers +12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Warriors 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | WWLLL | 27.6 |
Wests Tigers | WWLLL | 27.2 |
Avg Conceded
20.2
Warriors
24.4
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
7.4
Warriors
2.8
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1713
Warriors
1594
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
5.5
Warriors
4.3
Wests Tigers
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Adam Gee officiates — Warriors 15W–16L (48%) and Wests Tigers 17W–21L (45%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 42.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Warriors an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Warriors predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 48 · Line: +4.6
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