NRL | Round 4

alphr.com.au

GLD
Titans
VS
SGI
Dragons
CBUS SUPER STADIUM, GOLD COAST • SUNDAY 29 MAR, 6:15 PM

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

51%TitansFavourite

Titans

51%

Dragons

49%

✨

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Titans a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Dragons are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Titans counter with Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Dragons carry a 37-point ELO rating advantage (1332 vs 1295). Recent form favours Titans with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Dragons.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Titans to Win @1.87

Winner ✓

Edge

-0.6%

✓

Line / Spread

Dragons +0.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Margin Band

Dragons Draw @8.00

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 52.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Titans
WLLLL
21.6
Dragons
LLLLL
15.6

Avg Conceded

32.8

Titans

36.2

Dragons

Avg Margin

-11.2

Titans

-20.6

Dragons

Run Metres

1479

Titans

1568

Dragons

Line Breaks

5.0

Titans

2.5

Dragons

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Dragons
Liam Kennedy59 games since 2018

Each team's win rate when Liam Kennedy refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

GLD
15%2W 11L
SGI
80%8W 2L

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Dragons have won 8 of 10 games (80%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Titans's 2 from 13 (15%). That's a 65‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 45.4 pts, sitting close to the league average.

Avg Total

45.4 pts

Home Win %

51%

Home Bias

Neutral

H2H History (Last 5)Dragons lead 4-1
Apr 2025GLD 16 - 38 SGI
Aug 2024GLD 16 - 32 SGI
Mar 2024GLD 4 - 28 SGI
Apr 2023GLD 20 - 18 SGI
Mar 2023GLD 18 - 32 SGI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model
⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Dragons hold the ELO advantage (1332 vs 1295), but the market favours Titans (@1.87).

The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

GLD
1295Overall1332
SGI
ELO difference: -37 in favour of Dragons

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

771Forwards869
SGI +98
763Backs792
SGI +30
759Halves849
SGI +90
810Hooker848
SGI +38

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GLD
Stat
SGI
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
21.6pts
Avg Score
15.6pts
32.8pts
Avg Conceded
36.2pts
-11.2pts
Avg Margin
-20.6pts
1478.8m
Run Metres
1568.0m
5.0
Line Breaks
2.5
300.0
Tackles
300.0
12.0
Errors
12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Dragons
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Dragons
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dragons
4
Halves Control9.0%
Dragons
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Titans
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Titans
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Titans

Model Confidence

51%

Titans predicted to win by 0 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: -0.5

2/4 match predictions correct
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