Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
44%
Roosters
56%
AI Match Overview
Roosters hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Sea Eagles are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Roosters carry a 80-point ELO rating advantage (1504 vs 1424). The margin model predicts Roosters by 3.0 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.47
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.3%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles +7.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Roosters 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | WWWLL | 33.0 |
Roosters | WWWLL | 26.0 |
Avg Conceded
27.0
Sea Eagles
19.2
Roosters
Avg Margin
6.0
Sea Eagles
6.8
Roosters
Run Metres
1741
Sea Eagles
1620
Roosters
Line Breaks
6.0
Sea Eagles
6.8
Roosters
Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Sea Eagles have won 2 of 3 games (67%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Roosters's 0 from 2 (0%). That's a 67‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 50.2 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Sea Eagles an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 2 games for Roosters — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
50.2 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Roosters predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -3.0
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