NRL | Round 4

alphr.com.au

CAN
Raiders
VS
CRO
Sharks
GIO STADIUM, CANBERRA • SUNDAY 29 MAR, 4:05 PM

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

56%RaidersFavourite

Raiders

56%

Sharks

44%

✨

AI Match Overview

Raiders hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Sharks are far from out of this at 44%. Sharks are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Raiders counter with Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Sharks carry a 44-point ELO rating advantage (1513 vs 1469). Recent form favours Sharks with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Raiders. The margin model predicts Raiders by 1.3 points with a combined total of 47.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Raiders to Win @1.80

Lost ✗

Edge

+2.5%

✗

Line / Spread

Sharks +1.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Raiders 1-12 @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 47.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Raiders
WLLLL
19.8
Sharks
WWWLL
24.4

Avg Conceded

38.2

Raiders

16.0

Sharks

Avg Margin

-18.4

Raiders

8.4

Sharks

Run Metres

1525

Raiders

1604

Sharks

Line Breaks

4.5

Raiders

4.5

Sharks

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Raiders
Grant Atkins312 games since 2013

Each team's win rate when Grant Atkins refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

CAN
59%27W 19L
CRO
52%16W 15L

Raiders hold a 7‑point edge: 27W–19L (59%) vs Sharks's 16W–15L (52%) across all games Grant Atkins has refereed for each side. His games average 42.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 55% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Raiders an additional edge at home.

Avg Total

42.9 pts

Home Win %

55%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Sharks lead 4-1
Oct 2025CAN 12 - 32 CRO
Apr 2025CAN 24 - 20 CRO
Apr 2024CAN 0 - 40 CRO
Mar 2024CAN 22 - 36 CRO
Sep 2023CAN 6 - 24 CRO
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model
⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Sharks hold the ELO advantage (1513 vs 1469), but the market favours Raiders (@1.80).

The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAN
1469Overall1513
CRO
ELO difference: -44 in favour of Sharks

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

982Forwards1046
CRO +64
981Backs973
Even
938Halves1014
CRO +77
949Hooker1006
CRO +57

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAN
Stat
CRO
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
19.8pts
Avg Score
24.4pts
38.2pts
Avg Conceded
16.0pts
-18.4pts
Avg Margin
8.4pts
1525.3m
Run Metres
1603.5m
4.5
Line Breaks
4.5
300.0
Tackles
300.0
12.0
Errors
12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Sharks
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Sharks
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Sharks
4
Halves Control9.0%
Sharks
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Sharks
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Raiders
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Raiders

Model Confidence

56%

Raiders predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 47 · Line: +1.3

1/4 match predictions correct
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