Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Panthers
65%
Eels
35%
AI Match Overview
Panthers are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. The model sees Panthers ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 175-point ELO rating advantage (1673 vs 1498). The margin model predicts Panthers by 5.7 points with a combined total of 49.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.20
Winner ✓
Edge
-13.8%
Line / Spread
Eels +14.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Panthers 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Panthers | WWWWL | 27.2 |
Eels | WWWWL | 33.2 |
Avg Conceded
11.2
Panthers
25.2
Eels
Avg Margin
16.0
Panthers
8.0
Eels
Run Metres
1801
Panthers
1608
Eels
Line Breaks
4.0
Panthers
4.8
Eels
Each team's win rate when Todd Smith refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Eels hold a 10‑point edge: 9W–6L (60%) vs Panthers's 6W–6L (50%) across all games Todd Smith has refereed for each side. His games average 45.7 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
45.7 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
Panthers predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 49 · Line: +5.7
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.