Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
32%
Storm
68%
AI Match Overview
Storm are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Cowboys. The model sees Storm ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 235-point ELO rating advantage (1625 vs 1391). Recent form favours Storm with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Storm by 9.7 points with a combined total of 53.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.19
Lost ✗
Edge
-11.7%
Line / Spread
Cowboys +15.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Storm 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 51.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | WWLLL | 27.2 |
Storm | WWWWL | 32.0 |
Avg Conceded
28.4
Cowboys
17.2
Storm
Avg Margin
-1.2
Cowboys
14.8
Storm
Run Metres
1818
Cowboys
1810
Storm
Line Breaks
4.0
Cowboys
6.8
Storm
Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Storm have won 48 of 65 games (74%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Cowboys's 26 from 48 (54%). That's a 20‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 41.8 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Cowboys an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
41.8 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Storm predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 53 · Line: -9.7
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