Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sharks
66%
Dolphins
34%
AI Match Overview
Sharks are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dolphins. The model sees Sharks ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sharks carry a 75-point ELO rating advantage (1566 vs 1491). Recent form favours Sharks with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Dolphins. The margin model predicts Sharks by 6.0 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.43
Lost ✗
Edge
-1.0%
Line / Spread
Dolphins +7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Sharks 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 55.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | WWWWL | 28.0 |
Dolphins | WWLLL | 37.2 |
Avg Conceded
12.0
Sharks
38.0
Dolphins
Avg Margin
16.0
Sharks
-0.8
Dolphins
Run Metres
1618
Sharks
1695
Dolphins
Line Breaks
4.2
Sharks
8.0
Dolphins
Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Sharks have won 25 of 45 games (56%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Dolphins's 4 from 12 (33%). That's a 23‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 41.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Sharks an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
41.9 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Sharks predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: +6.0
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