Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Knights
42%
Warriors
58%
AI Match Overview
Warriors hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 42%. The model sees Warriors ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Warriors carry a 117-point ELO rating advantage (1556 vs 1439). The margin model predicts Warriors by 2.2 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.59
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.9%
Line / Spread
Knights +4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Warriors 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | WWLLL | 18.4 |
Warriors | WWLLL | 26.0 |
Avg Conceded
38.0
Knights
22.6
Warriors
Avg Margin
-19.6
Knights
3.4
Warriors
Run Metres
1421
Knights
1718
Warriors
Line Breaks
3.8
Knights
5.2
Warriors
Each team's win rate when Liam Kennedy refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Warriors have won 4 of 5 games (80%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Knights's 5 from 9 (56%). That's a 24‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 45.2 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 5 games for Warriors — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
45.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Neutral
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
Warriors predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -2.2
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