Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Roosters
55%
Rabbitohs
45%
AI Match Overview
Roosters hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Rabbitohs are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Roosters carry a 63-point ELO rating advantage (1521 vs 1458). The margin model predicts Roosters by 2.3 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.83
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Line / Spread
Roosters -1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Roosters 1-12 @2.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Roosters | WWWLL | 25.6 |
Rabbitohs | WWWLL | 20.0 |
Avg Conceded
15.6
Roosters
26.0
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
10.0
Roosters
-6.0
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1532
Roosters
1570
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
5.4
Roosters
4.2
Rabbitohs
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Adam Gee officiates, Roosters have won 24 of 38 games (63%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 14 from 30 (47%). That's a 16‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 42.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Roosters an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Roosters predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +2.3
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