Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Dragons
41%
Storm
59%
AI Match Overview
Storm hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 41%. The model sees Storm ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 281-point ELO rating advantage (1645 vs 1364). Recent form favours Storm with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Storm by 4.3 points with a combined total of 49.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.38
Winner ✓
Edge
-10.3%
Line / Spread
Dragons +8.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Storm 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | WLLLL | 15.2 |
Storm | WWWLL | 18.4 |
Avg Conceded
29.6
Dragons
23.2
Storm
Avg Margin
-14.4
Dragons
-4.8
Storm
Run Metres
1562
Dragons
1500
Storm
Line Breaks
3.6
Dragons
3.8
Storm
Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Storm have won 47 of 65 games (72%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Dragons's 11 from 33 (33%). That's a 39‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 41.8 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Dragons an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
41.8 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
Storm predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 49 · Line: -4.3
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