NRL | Round 1

alphr.com.au

CRO
Sharks
VS
GLD
Titans
OCEAN PROTECT STADIUM, SYDNEY • SATURDAY 7 MAR, 5:30 PM

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

80%SharksFavourite

Sharks

80%

Titans

20%

✨

AI Match Overview

Sharks are clear favourites here at 80%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Titans. The model sees Sharks ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sharks carry a 133-point ELO rating advantage (1548 vs 1415). Recent form favours Sharks with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Titans. The margin model predicts Sharks by 8.5 points with a combined total of 48.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Sharks to Win @1.26

Winner ✓

Edge

+4.1%

✓

Line / Spread

Titans +11.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Margin Band

Sharks 1-12 @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 48.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Sharks
WWWWW
34.0
Titans
LLLLL
22.8

Avg Conceded

13.2

Sharks

34.4

Titans

Avg Margin

20.8

Sharks

-11.6

Titans

Run Metres

1680

Sharks

1667

Titans

Line Breaks

5.0

Sharks

4.6

Titans

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Sharks
Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski71 games since 2017

Each team's win rate when Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

CRO
55%6W 5L
GLD
20%2W 8L

When Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiates, Sharks have won 6 of 11 games (55%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Titans's 2 from 10 (20%). That's a 35‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 40.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Away teams perform unusually well in his matches — home sides win just 44%, below the ~52% league average.

Avg Total

40.9 pts

Home Win %

44%

Home Bias

Leans away

H2H History (Last 5)Sharks lead 4-1
Aug 2025CRO 54 - 22 GLD
Aug 2024CRO 44 - 0 GLD
Jul 2024CRO 16 - 20 GLD
Aug 2023CRO 36 - 6 GLD
Jun 2022CRO 18 - 10 GLD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CRO
1548Overall1415
GLD
ELO difference: +133 in favour of Sharks

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1080Forwards927
CRO +154
1065Backs915
CRO +151
1065Halves903
CRO +162
1029Hooker881
CRO +148

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CRO
Stat
GLD
5.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
34.0pts
Avg Score
22.8pts
13.2pts
Avg Conceded
34.4pts
20.8pts
Avg Margin
-11.6pts
1680.0m
Run Metres
1667.0m
5.0
Line Breaks
4.6
300.0
Tackles
300.0
12.0
Errors
12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Sharks
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Sharks
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Sharks
4
Halves Control9.0%
Sharks
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Sharks
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Sharks
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Sharks

Model Confidence

80%

Sharks predicted to win by 9 points

Predicted total: 48 · Line: +8.5

1/4 match predictions correct
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