Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
51%
Raiders
49%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Sea Eagles a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Raiders are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Sea Eagles counter with Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Raiders carry a 24-point ELO rating advantage (1517 vs 1493). Recent form favours Raiders with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sea Eagles. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 1.1 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.3%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -0.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Sea Eagles 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 43.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | WWLLL | 25.2 |
Raiders | WWWLL | 24.8 |
Avg Conceded
25.6
Sea Eagles
25.8
Raiders
Avg Margin
-0.4
Sea Eagles
-1.0
Raiders
Run Metres
1681
Sea Eagles
1568
Raiders
Line Breaks
5.4
Sea Eagles
4.4
Raiders
Each team's win rate when Liam Kennedy refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Raiders have won 4 of 5 games (80%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Sea Eagles's 4 from 7 (57%). That's a 23‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 45.1 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 5 games for Raiders — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
45.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Neutral
ELO–Market Disagreement
Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1517 vs 1493), but the market favours Sea Eagles (@1.91).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +1.1
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