NRL | Round 1

alphr.com.au

DOL
Dolphins
VS
SOU
Rabbitohs
SUNCORP STADIUM, BRISBANE • SUNDAY 8 MAR, 4:05 PM

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

51%RabbitohsFavourite

Dolphins

49%

Rabbitohs

51%

✨

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Rabbitohs a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Dolphins are stronger on paper across 6 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Rabbitohs counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Dolphins carry a 54-point ELO rating advantage (1508 vs 1454). Recent form favours Rabbitohs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Dolphins.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Rabbitohs to Win @2.00

Winner ✓

Edge

+3.4%

✓

Line / Spread

Rabbitohs +1.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Dolphins 1-12 @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Over 43.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Dolphins
WWLLL
25.2
Rabbitohs
WWWLL
21.2

Avg Conceded

41.6

Dolphins

21.6

Rabbitohs

Avg Margin

-16.4

Dolphins

-0.4

Rabbitohs

Run Metres

1557

Dolphins

1538

Rabbitohs

Line Breaks

6.4

Dolphins

4.6

Rabbitohs

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Rabbitohs
Peter Gough176 games since 2016

Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

DOL
25%2W 6L
SOU
42%8W 11L

When Peter Gough officiates, Rabbitohs have won 8 of 19 games (42%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Dolphins's 2 from 8 (25%). That's a 17‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 44.1 pts, sitting close to the league average.

Avg Total

44.1 pts

Home Win %

53%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 4)Tied 2-2
Jul 2025DOL 50 - 28 SOU
Mar 2025DOL 14 - 16 SOU
Jul 2024DOL 36 - 28 SOU
Apr 2023DOL 14 - 36 SOU
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model
⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1508 vs 1454), but the market favours Rabbitohs (@2.00).

The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

DOL
1508Overall1454
SOU
ELO difference: +54 in favour of Dolphins

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1003Forwards937
DOL +65
1042Backs965
DOL +77
1023Halves980
DOL +43
993Hooker980
DOL +14

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

DOL
Stat
SOU
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
25.2pts
Avg Score
21.2pts
41.6pts
Avg Conceded
21.6pts
-16.4pts
Avg Margin
-0.4pts
1557.0m
Run Metres
1537.6m
6.4
Line Breaks
4.6
300.0
Tackles
300.0
12.0
Errors
12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Dolphins
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Dolphins
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dolphins
4
Halves Control9.0%
Dolphins
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Rabbitohs
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Dolphins
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Dolphins

Model Confidence

51%

Rabbitohs predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: +0.7

3/4 match predictions correct
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AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

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