Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
75%
Dragons
25%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dragons. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Bulldogs carry a 73-point ELO rating advantage (1491 vs 1418). The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 7.8 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.38
Winner ✓
Edge
+6.4%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs -7.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Bulldogs 1-12 @2.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | WLLLL | 19.6 |
Dragons | WLLLL | 15.2 |
Avg Conceded
25.2
Bulldogs
29.6
Dragons
Avg Margin
-5.6
Bulldogs
-14.4
Dragons
Run Metres
1640
Bulldogs
1562
Dragons
Line Breaks
5.3
Bulldogs
3.6
Dragons
Each team's win rate when Grant Atkins refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Bulldogs hold a 5‑point edge: 15W–17L (47%) vs Dragons's 15W–21L (42%) across all games Grant Atkins has refereed for each side. His games average 43.0 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
43.0 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
75%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +7.8
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.