AI Game Review
Sharks defied the model's 61% prediction for Raiders — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 4.2 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 44 — within 1 points. Sharks led 6–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 44.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Raiders
61%
Sharks
39%
AI Match Overview
Raiders hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Sharks are far from out of this at 39%. Sharks are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control — but Raiders counter with Forward Pack and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Sharks carry a 51-point ELO rating advantage (1630 vs 1579). Recent form favours Sharks with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Raiders. The margin model predicts Raiders by 4.2 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.53
Lost ✗
Edge
+4.6%
Line / Spread
Raiders -5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+4.6%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | WWWLL | 24.8 |
Sharks | WWWWL | 30.4 |
Avg Conceded
25.8
Raiders
15.2
Sharks
Avg Margin
-1.0
Raiders
15.2
Sharks
Run Metres
1568
Raiders
1657
Sharks
Line Breaks
4.4
Raiders
4.4
Sharks
ELO–Market Disagreement
Sharks hold the ELO advantage (1630 vs 1579), but the market favours Raiders (@1.53).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Raiders predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +4.2
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