AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 12 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Wests Tigers bucked the trend — Dragons historically win 25% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Wests Tigers's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Wests Tigers to win at 54% probability. The predicted margin of 2.3 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 62 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 42. The model went 1/3 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
54%
Dragons
46%
AI Match Overview
Wests Tigers hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 46%. The model sees Wests Tigers ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Backline Quality, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. Dragons carry a 24-point ELO rating advantage (1419 vs 1396). Recent form favours Dragons with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Dragons by 2.3 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wests Tigers to Win @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.6%
Line / Spread
Dragons -1.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-0.6%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+7.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | WWLLL | 22.0 |
Dragons | WWWLL | 22.4 |
Avg Conceded
26.4
Wests Tigers
22.2
Dragons
Avg Margin
-4.4
Wests Tigers
0.2
Dragons
Run Metres
1641
Wests Tigers
1687
Dragons
Line Breaks
3.6
Wests Tigers
5.6
Dragons
Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Dragons hold a 8‑point edge: 1W–3L (25%) vs Wests Tigers's 1W–5L (17%) across all games Wyatt Raymond has refereed for each side. His games average 49.9 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Wests Tigers an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 4 games for Dragons — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Dragons hold the ELO advantage (1419 vs 1396), but the market favours Wests Tigers (@1.90).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
54%
Wests Tigers predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: -2.3
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