AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 13 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Warriors bucked the trend — Cowboys historically win 54% of games under Adam Gee, but couldn't convert that edge today. Warriors's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Warriors defied the model's 54% prediction for Cowboys — a notable result. The predicted margin of 3.9 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Warriors
46%
Cowboys
54%
AI Match Overview
Cowboys hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Warriors are far from out of this at 46%. Warriors are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including Forward Pack, Halves Control and Referee Tendency — but Cowboys counter with ELO Difference and Backline Quality which tips the scales. Cowboys carry a 38-point ELO rating advantage (1552 vs 1514). The margin model predicts Cowboys by 3.9 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Cowboys to Win @1.85
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.2%
Line / Spread
Cowboys +1.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.2%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+8.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | WWWWL | 20.0 |
Cowboys | WWWWL | 28.4 |
Avg Conceded
20.4
Warriors
19.6
Cowboys
Avg Margin
-0.4
Warriors
8.8
Cowboys
Run Metres
1801
Warriors
1828
Cowboys
Line Breaks
3.8
Warriors
6.6
Cowboys
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Cowboys hold a 9‑point edge: 21W–18L (54%) vs Warriors's 14W–17L (45%) across all games Adam Gee has refereed for each side. His games average 42.6 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Warriors an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.6 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
54%
Cowboys predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: -3.9
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