AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (59 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 11 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 45. Knights bucked the trend — Rabbitohs historically win 56% of games under Liam Kennedy, but couldn't convert that edge today.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Knights to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 7.1 but the actual margin was 26 points. Knights led 0–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
31%
Knights
69%
AI Match Overview
Knights are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Rabbitohs carry a 55-point ELO rating advantage (1412 vs 1357). Recent form favours Rabbitohs with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Knights. The margin model predicts Knights by 7.1 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Knights to Win @2.15
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.1%
Line / Spread
Knights -2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.1%
Total Points
Over 44.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | WWLLL | 16.0 |
Knights | LLLLL | 7.2 |
Avg Conceded
22.4
Rabbitohs
25.2
Knights
Avg Margin
-6.4
Rabbitohs
-18.0
Knights
Run Metres
1488
Rabbitohs
1573
Knights
Line Breaks
3.2
Rabbitohs
2.6
Knights
Each team's win rate when Liam Kennedy refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Rabbitohs hold a 12‑point edge: 5W–4L (56%) vs Knights's 4W–5L (44%) across all games Liam Kennedy has refereed for each side. His games average 45.5 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
45.5 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Neutral
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Knights predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -7.1
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