NRL | Round 8

alphr.com.au

CAN
Raiders
VS
DOL
Dolphins
GIO STADIUM, CANBERRA • SUNDAY 27 APR, 2:00 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Ashley Klein officiated this match (379 career games). The combined score of 68 points was 25 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Raiders's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend — Raiders have a 47% win rate under this referee. Raiders's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile — home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 61% probability. The predicted margin of 6.1 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. The game's 68 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 47. Raiders trailed 10–28 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 40–28. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

61%RaidersFavourite

Raiders

61%

Dolphins

39%

AI Match Overview

Raiders hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Dolphins are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Raiders ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Raiders carry a 20-point ELO rating advantage (1530 vs 1509). The margin model predicts Raiders by 6.1 points with a combined total of 47.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Raiders to Win @1.56

Winner ✓

Edge

-5.5%

Line / Spread

Raiders -4.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-5.5%

Total Points

Under 49.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+7.5%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Raiders
WWWLL
27.2
Dolphins
WWWLL
27.6

Avg Conceded

24.4

Raiders

18.8

Dolphins

Avg Margin

2.8

Raiders

8.8

Dolphins

Run Metres

1596

Raiders

1699

Dolphins

Line Breaks

4.6

Raiders

4.4

Dolphins

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Raiders
Ashley Klein379 games since 2010

Each team's win rate when Ashley Klein refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

CAN
47%23W 26L
DOL
33%2W 4L

Raiders hold a 14‑point edge: 23W–26L (47%) vs Dolphins's 2W–4L (33%) across all games Ashley Klein has refereed for each side. His games average 43.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Raiders an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 6 games for Dolphins — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

43.4 pts

Home Win %

60%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 4)Tied 2-2
Sep 2025CAN 24 - 62 DOL
Jun 2024CAN 26 - 25 DOL
May 2023CAN 31 - 30 DOL
Mar 2023CAN 14 - 20 DOL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAN
1530Overall1509
DOL
ELO difference: +20 in favour of Raiders

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1197Forwards1085
Best: 1353CAN +111Best: 1188
1037Backs1084
Best: 1144DOL +47Best: 1126
1331Halves1161
Best: 1331CAN +169Best: 1161
1188Hooker1234
DOL +46

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAN
Stat
DOL
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
27.2pts
Avg Score
27.6pts
24.4pts
Avg Conceded
18.8pts
2.8pts
Avg Margin
8.8pts
1596.4m
Run Metres
1699.2m
4.6
Line Breaks
4.4
347.4
Tackles
353.0
10.8
Errors
10.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Raiders
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Raiders
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dolphins
4
Halves Control9.0%
Raiders
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Raiders
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Raiders

Model Confidence

61%

Raiders predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 47 · Line: +6.1

2/3 match predictions correct
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