AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (59 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 15 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 45. Eels's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend — Eels have a 56% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Eels defied the model's 52% prediction for Wests Tigers — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 1.6 but the actual margin was 16 points. The game's 60 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 45. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
52%
Eels
48%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Wests Tigers a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Wests Tigers carry a 92-point ELO rating advantage (1405 vs 1314). Recent form favours Wests Tigers with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Eels. The margin model predicts Wests Tigers by 1.6 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wests Tigers to Win @1.45
Lost ✗
Edge
-6.5%
Line / Spread
Wests Tigers -7.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-6.5%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+6.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | WWWLL | 26.0 |
Eels | WLLLL | 12.2 |
Avg Conceded
20.0
Wests Tigers
29.2
Eels
Avg Margin
6.0
Wests Tigers
-17.0
Eels
Run Metres
1691
Wests Tigers
1573
Eels
Line Breaks
4.6
Wests Tigers
3.6
Eels
Each team's win rate when Liam Kennedy refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Eels have won 5 of 9 games (56%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 1 from 7 (14%). That's a 42‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 45.0 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 7 games for Wests Tigers — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
45.0 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Neutral
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Wests Tigers predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +1.6
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