AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 7 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Raiders's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend — Raiders have a 53% win rate under this referee. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Raiders prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 59% probability. The predicted margin of 1.8 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Titans
41%
Raiders
59%
AI Match Overview
Raiders hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 41%. The model sees Raiders ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Raiders carry a 137-point ELO rating advantage (1512 vs 1375). Recent form favours Raiders with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Titans. The margin model predicts Raiders by 1.8 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.85
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.6%
Line / Spread
Raiders +1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-6.6%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+22.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Titans | WWLLL | 21.2 |
Raiders | WWWLL | 27.6 |
Avg Conceded
26.4
Titans
24.8
Raiders
Avg Margin
-5.2
Titans
2.8
Raiders
Run Metres
1597
Titans
1609
Raiders
Line Breaks
3.4
Titans
5.2
Raiders
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Adam Gee officiates, Raiders have won 21 of 40 games (53%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Titans's 4 from 23 (17%). That's a 36‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 42.6 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Titans an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.6 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
Raiders predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -1.8
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