AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (176 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 6 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Dragons defied the model's 66% prediction for Sea Eagles — a notable upset. The predicted margin of 4.0 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 38 — within 3 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 28.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
66%
Dragons
34%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dragons. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Venue Advantage. Sea Eagles carry a 72-point ELO rating advantage (1512 vs 1441). The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 4.0 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.60
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.3%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -3.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.3%
Total Points
Over 28.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+30.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | WWLLL | 24.8 |
Dragons | WWLLL | 23.6 |
Avg Conceded
26.4
Sea Eagles
20.0
Dragons
Avg Margin
-1.6
Sea Eagles
3.6
Dragons
Run Metres
1639
Sea Eagles
1709
Dragons
Line Breaks
5.6
Sea Eagles
6.2
Dragons
Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Peter Gough officiates — Sea Eagles 8W–8L (50%) and Dragons 13W–13L (50%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 44.3 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
44.3 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +4.0
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