AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (379 career games). The combined score of 48 points was 5 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Sharks prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 64% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 4.8 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 48 — within 1 points. Sharks led 4–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Knights
36%
Sharks
64%
AI Match Overview
Sharks hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Sharks ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sharks carry a 147-point ELO rating advantage (1548 vs 1401). Recent form favours Sharks with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Knights. The margin model predicts Sharks by 4.8 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.38
Winner ✓
Edge
-7.5%
Line / Spread
Sharks +9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-7.5%
Total Points
Over 42.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+12.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | WWLLL | 9.2 |
Sharks | WWWLL | 22.6 |
Avg Conceded
17.2
Knights
17.2
Sharks
Avg Margin
-8.0
Knights
5.4
Sharks
Run Metres
1634
Knights
1773
Sharks
Line Breaks
4.2
Knights
5.2
Sharks
Each team's win rate when Ashley Klein refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Ashley Klein officiates — Knights 16W–23L (41%) and Sharks 24W–32L (43%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 43.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Knights an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
43.4 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Sharks predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: -4.8
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