NRL | Round 7

alphr.com.au

CBY
Bulldogs
VS
SOU
Rabbitohs
ACCOR STADIUM, SYDNEY • FRIDAY 18 APR, 4:05 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Grant Atkins officiated this match (312 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 11 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 71% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 6.7 but the actual margin was 32 points. Bulldogs led 20–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

71%BulldogsFavourite

Bulldogs

71%

Rabbitohs

29%

AI Match Overview

Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Bulldogs carry a 164-point ELO rating advantage (1613 vs 1449). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 6.7 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Bulldogs to Win @1.33

Winner ✓

Edge

-5.4%

Line / Spread

Bulldogs -9.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-5.4%

Total Points

Under 44.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+9.4%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Bulldogs
WWWWW
24.8
Rabbitohs
WWWLL
20.2

Avg Conceded

11.6

Bulldogs

21.4

Rabbitohs

Avg Margin

13.2

Bulldogs

-1.2

Rabbitohs

Run Metres

1733

Bulldogs

1573

Rabbitohs

Line Breaks

4.8

Bulldogs

4.2

Rabbitohs

Referee IndicatorAI
Balanced record
Grant Atkins312 games since 2013

Each team's win rate when Grant Atkins refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

CBY
47%15W 17L
SOU
44%18W 23L

Both sides have a similar record when Grant Atkins officiates — Bulldogs 15W–17L (47%) and Rabbitohs 18W–23L (44%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 43.0 pts, sitting close to the league average.

Avg Total

43.0 pts

Home Win %

55%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Rabbitohs lead 3-2
Apr 2026CBY 24 - 32 SOU
Jun 2025CBY 24 - 18 SOU
Mar 2024CBY 16 - 20 SOU
Jul 2023CBY 36 - 32 SOU
Apr 2023CBY 16 - 50 SOU
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CBY
1613Overall1449
SOU
ELO difference: +164 in favour of Bulldogs

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1152Forwards1089
Best: 1298CBY +63Best: 1214
953Backs954
Best: 1049EvenBest: 1136
1244Halves1100
Best: 1244CBY +144Best: 1100
1044Hooker1045
Even

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CBY
Stat
SOU
5.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
24.8pts
Avg Score
20.2pts
11.6pts
Avg Conceded
21.4pts
13.2pts
Avg Margin
-1.2pts
1733.0m
Run Metres
1573.2m
4.8
Line Breaks
4.2
340.0
Tackles
333.2
10.2
Errors
10.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Bulldogs
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Bulldogs
3
Backline Quality10.0%
4
Halves Control9.0%
Bulldogs
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Bulldogs
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Bulldogs

Model Confidence

71%

Bulldogs predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: +6.7

3/3 match predictions correct
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