NRL | Round 6

alphr.com.au

MEL
Storm
VS
NZL
Warriors
AAMI PARK, MELBOURNE • SUNDAY 13 APR, 2:00 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Ashley Klein officiated this match (379 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 13 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Storm's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend — Storm have a 62% win rate under this referee. Storm's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile — home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 76% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 12.8 but the actual margin was 28 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

76%StormFavourite

Storm

76%

Warriors

24%

AI Match Overview

Storm are clear favourites here at 76%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warriors. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Storm carry a 194-point ELO rating advantage (1685 vs 1491). The margin model predicts Storm by 12.8 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Storm to Win @1.18

Winner ✓

Edge

-10.7%

Line / Spread

Storm -14.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-10.7%

Total Points

Under 53.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+27.3%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Storm
WWWWL
38.0
Warriors
WWWWL
22.8

Avg Conceded

19.6

Storm

20.8

Warriors

Avg Margin

18.4

Storm

2.0

Warriors

Run Metres

1645

Storm

1832

Warriors

Line Breaks

6.8

Storm

4.4

Warriors

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Storm
Ashley Klein379 games since 2010

Each team's win rate when Ashley Klein refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

MEL
62%39W 24L
NZL
36%12W 21L

When Ashley Klein officiates, Storm have won 39 of 63 games (62%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Warriors's 12 from 33 (36%). That's a 26‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 43.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Storm an additional edge at home.

Avg Total

43.4 pts

Home Win %

60%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Storm lead 5-0
Jun 2024MEL 38 - 24 NZL
Mar 2024MEL 30 - 26 NZL
Apr 2023MEL 30 - 22 NZL
Jul 2022MEL 24 - 12 NZL
Apr 2022MEL 70 - 10 NZL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

MEL
1685Overall1491
NZL
ELO difference: +194 in favour of Storm

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1041Forwards1096
Best: 1280NZL +55Best: 1331
953Backs1022
Best: 1116NZL +69Best: 1101
1160Halves1191
Best: 1160NZL +31Best: 1191
959Hooker1090
NZL +131

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

MEL
Stat
NZL
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
38.0pts
Avg Score
22.8pts
19.6pts
Avg Conceded
20.8pts
18.4pts
Avg Margin
2.0pts
1645.0m
Run Metres
1831.6m
6.8
Line Breaks
4.4
300.6
Tackles
338.2
12.0
Errors
8.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Storm
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Halves Control9.0%
Warriors
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Storm
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Storm

Model Confidence

76%

Storm predicted to win by 13 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +12.8

2/3 match predictions correct
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