AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Sharks's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend — Sharks have a 71% win rate under this referee. Sharks's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 66% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Sharks by 3.9 vs the actual margin of 6 points. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 42 — within 4 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sharks
66%
Sea Eagles
34%
AI Match Overview
Sharks are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sea Eagles. Sea Eagles are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate — but Sharks counter with Forward Pack and Halves Control which tips the scales. Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sharks. The margin model predicts Sharks by 3.9 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Sharks -5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | WWLLL | 22.2 |
Sea Eagles | WWWLL | 29.6 |
Avg Conceded
19.2
Sharks
24.0
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
3.0
Sharks
5.6
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1765
Sharks
1708
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
5.2
Sharks
7.2
Sea Eagles
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Adam Gee officiates, Sharks have won 29 of 41 games (71%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Sea Eagles's 15 from 36 (42%). That's a 29‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 42.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Sharks an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Sea Eagles hold the ELO advantage (1538 vs 1523), but the market favours Sharks (@1.50).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Sharks predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +3.9
Try Scorer Predictions
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