NRL | Round 6

alphr.com.au

DOL
Dolphins
VS
PEN
Panthers
SUNCORP STADIUM, BRISBANE • THURSDAY 10 APR, 7:50 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Grant Atkins officiated this match (312 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Dolphins bucked the trend — Panthers historically win 68% of games under Grant Atkins, but couldn't convert that edge today.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Dolphins defied the model's 65% prediction for Panthers — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 2.8 but the actual margin was 18 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 42 — within 3 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

65%PanthersFavourite

Dolphins

35%

Panthers

65%

AI Match Overview

Panthers are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dolphins. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Panthers carry a 116-point ELO rating advantage (1524 vs 1407). The margin model predicts Panthers by 2.8 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Panthers to Win @1.40

Lost ✗

Edge

-6.5%

Line / Spread

Panthers +7.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

-6.5%

Total Points

Under 48.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+10.3%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Dolphins
WLLLL
18.4
Panthers
WLLLL
24.0

Avg Conceded

20.4

Dolphins

28.0

Panthers

Avg Margin

-2.0

Dolphins

-4.0

Panthers

Run Metres

1761

Dolphins

1714

Panthers

Line Breaks

3.4

Dolphins

6.4

Panthers

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Panthers
Grant Atkins312 games since 2013

Each team's win rate when Grant Atkins refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

DOL
40%4W 6L
PEN
68%25W 12L

When Grant Atkins officiates, Panthers have won 25 of 37 games (68%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Dolphins's 4 from 10 (40%). That's a 28‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 42.9 pts, sitting close to the league average.

Avg Total

42.9 pts

Home Win %

55%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 2)Panthers lead 2-0
Jul 2024DOL 26 - 28 PEN
Jul 2023DOL 14 - 24 PEN
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

DOL
1407Overall1524
PEN
ELO difference: -116 in favour of Panthers

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1115Forwards1122
Best: 1260EvenBest: 1279
1048Backs1036
Best: 1200DOL +12Best: 1140
1266Halves1277
Best: 1266PEN +12Best: 1277
1164Hooker1090
DOL +73

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

DOL
Stat
PEN
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
18.4pts
Avg Score
24.0pts
20.4pts
Avg Conceded
28.0pts
-2.0pts
Avg Margin
-4.0pts
1761.4m
Run Metres
1714.2m
3.4
Line Breaks
6.4
379.0
Tackles
362.2
10.6
Errors
13.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Panthers
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Panthers
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dolphins
4
Halves Control9.0%
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Dolphins

Model Confidence

65%

Panthers predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: -2.8

1/3 match predictions correct
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