AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (176 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Roosters bucked the trend — Broncos historically win 63% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Roosters defied the model's 64% prediction for Broncos — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 10.1 but the actual margin was 10 points. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 42 — within 5 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 50.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Broncos
64%
Roosters
36%
AI Match Overview
Broncos hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Roosters are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Broncos ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. Broncos carry a 105-point ELO rating advantage (1539 vs 1435). Recent form favours Broncos with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Roosters. The margin model predicts Broncos by 10.1 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.30
Lost ✗
Edge
-19.0%
Line / Spread
Broncos -10.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-19.0%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.7%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | WWWWL | 32.8 |
Roosters | WLLLL | 16.8 |
Avg Conceded
19.6
Broncos
29.2
Roosters
Avg Margin
13.2
Broncos
-12.4
Roosters
Run Metres
1603
Broncos
1597
Roosters
Line Breaks
6.2
Broncos
5.6
Roosters
Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Peter Gough officiates, Broncos have won 12 of 19 games (63%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Roosters's 6 from 14 (43%). That's a 20‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 44.2 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Broncos predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: +10.1
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