NRL | Round 5

alphr.com.au

GLD
Titans
VS
DOL
Dolphins
CBUS SUPER STADIUM, GOLD COAST • SATURDAY 5 APR, 5:30 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 46 points was 4 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Dolphins's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend — Dolphins have a 67% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Dolphins prevailed.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Dolphins defied the model's 52% prediction for Titans — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 3.7 but the actual margin was 26 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 46 — within 1 points. Dolphins led 0–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 52.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

52%TitansFavourite

Titans

52%

Dolphins

48%

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Titans a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Titans ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Titans carry a 115-point ELO rating advantage (1469 vs 1353). Recent form favours Titans with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Dolphins. The margin model predicts Titans by 3.7 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Titans to Win @1.48

Lost ✗

Edge

-13.6%

Line / Spread

Titans -5.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

-13.6%

Total Points

Under 52.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+21.7%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Titans
WWLLL
21.2
Dolphins
LLLLL
12.4

Avg Conceded

22.4

Titans

21.2

Dolphins

Avg Margin

-1.2

Titans

-8.8

Dolphins

Run Metres

1665

Titans

1706

Dolphins

Line Breaks

3.6

Titans

2.8

Dolphins

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Dolphins
Wyatt Raymond40 games since 2024

Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

GLD
50%2W 2L
DOL
67%2W 1L

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Dolphins have won 2 of 3 games (67%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Titans's 2 from 4 (50%). That's a 17‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 50.3 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Titans an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 3 games for Dolphins — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

50.3 pts

Home Win %

60%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Dolphins lead 4-1
Mar 2026GLD 14 - 18 DOL
Sep 2025GLD 30 - 36 DOL
Aug 2024GLD 21 - 14 DOL
Mar 2024GLD 14 - 30 DOL
Jul 2023GLD 21 - 23 DOL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

GLD
1469Overall1353
DOL
ELO difference: +115 in favour of Titans

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1116Forwards1039
Best: 1244GLD +77Best: 1236
954Backs1048
Best: 1138DOL +94Best: 1157
1406Halves1174
Best: 1406GLD +232Best: 1174
1200Hooker1166
GLD +34

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GLD
Stat
DOL
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
21.2pts
Avg Score
12.4pts
22.4pts
Avg Conceded
21.2pts
-1.2pts
Avg Margin
-8.8pts
1665.0m
Run Metres
1706.0m
3.6
Line Breaks
2.8
343.4
Tackles
384.0
11.6
Errors
11.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Titans
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Titans
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dolphins
4
Halves Control9.0%
Titans
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Titans
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Titans
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Dolphins

Model Confidence

52%

Titans predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +3.7

1/3 match predictions correct
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