AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (59 career games). The combined score of 70 points was 25 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 45. Broncos's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend — Broncos have a 33% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 9.9 but the actual margin was 22 points. The game's 70 points came in 28 points higher than the predicted 42. Broncos led 14–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 22. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Broncos
65%
Wests Tigers
35%
AI Match Overview
Broncos are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Broncos ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Broncos carry a 126-point ELO rating advantage (1516 vs 1390). Recent form favours Broncos with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Broncos by 9.9 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.22
Winner ✓
Edge
-21.7%
Line / Spread
Broncos -14.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-21.7%
Total Points
Under 52.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+27.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | WWWLL | 26.0 |
Wests Tigers | WWLLL | 24.0 |
Avg Conceded
24.8
Broncos
24.0
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
1.2
Broncos
0.0
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1609
Broncos
1622
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
5.6
Broncos
4.6
Wests Tigers
Each team's win rate when Liam Kennedy refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Broncos have won 1 of 3 games (33%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 1 from 7 (14%). That's a 19‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 44.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 3 games for Broncos — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
44.9 pts
Home Win %
51%
Home Bias
Neutral
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
Broncos predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +9.9
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