AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The 50-point combined total was right in line with Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Warriors's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend — Warriors have a 50% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Warriors prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Warriors defied the model's 65% prediction for Wests Tigers — a notable upset. The predicted margin of 6.2 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
65%
Warriors
35%
AI Match Overview
Wests Tigers are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warriors. Warriors are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Wests Tigers counter with Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Warriors carry a 66-point ELO rating advantage (1474 vs 1408). The margin model predicts Wests Tigers by 6.2 points with a combined total of 40.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wests Tigers to Win @1.65
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.0%
Line / Spread
Wests Tigers -3.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.0%
Total Points
Under 45.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+14.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | WWWLL | 26.0 |
Warriors | WWWLL | 21.2 |
Avg Conceded
24.0
Wests Tigers
22.8
Warriors
Avg Margin
2.0
Wests Tigers
-1.6
Warriors
Run Metres
1670
Wests Tigers
1684
Warriors
Line Breaks
5.2
Wests Tigers
4.4
Warriors
Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Warriors have won 3 of 6 games (50%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 2 from 6 (33%). That's a 17‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 50.2 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Wests Tigers an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 6 games for Wests Tigers — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
50.2 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Warriors hold the ELO advantage (1474 vs 1408), but the market favours Wests Tigers (@1.65).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
Wests Tigers predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 40 · Line: +6.2
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