NRL | Round 3

alphr.com.au

MEL
Storm
VS
PEN
Panthers
AAMI PARK, MELBOURNE • THURSDAY 20 MAR, 8:00 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 11 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Storm's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 72% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Storm by 8.0 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

72%StormFavourite

Storm

72%

Panthers

28%

AI Match Overview

Storm are clear favourites here at 72%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Panthers. The model sees Storm ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 64-point ELO rating advantage (1679 vs 1615). The margin model predicts Storm by 8.0 points with a combined total of 41.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Storm to Win @1.43

Winner ✓

Edge

-3.2%

Line / Spread

Storm -6.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-3.2%

Total Points

Under 43.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+5.9%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Storm
WWWWL
44.2
Panthers
WWWWL
26.8

Avg Conceded

19.2

Storm

17.6

Panthers

Avg Margin

25.0

Storm

9.2

Panthers

Run Metres

1881

Storm

1859

Panthers

Line Breaks

8.8

Storm

5.0

Panthers

Referee IndicatorAI
Balanced record
Adam Gee287 games since 2013

Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

MEL
68%28W 13L
PEN
71%27W 11L

Both sides have a similar record when Adam Gee officiates — Storm 28W–13L (68%) and Panthers 27W–11L (71%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 42.6 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Storm an additional edge at home.

Avg Total

42.6 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Storm lead 3-2
Apr 2026MEL 10 - 50 PEN
Aug 2025MEL 22 - 18 PEN
Aug 2024MEL 24 - 22 PEN
Mar 2024MEL 8 - 0 PEN
Oct 2023MEL 4 - 38 PEN
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

MEL
1679Overall1615
PEN
ELO difference: +64 in favour of Storm

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1109Forwards1030
Best: 1238MEL +78Best: 1207
1123Backs933
Best: 1204MEL +190Best: 1074
1283Halves1087
Best: 1283MEL +196Best: 1087
987Hooker735
MEL +252

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

MEL
Stat
PEN
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
44.2pts
Avg Score
26.8pts
19.2pts
Avg Conceded
17.6pts
25.0pts
Avg Margin
9.2pts
1881.2m
Run Metres
1858.8m
8.8
Line Breaks
5.0
282.8
Tackles
352.8
9.8
Errors
11.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Storm
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Storm
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Storm
4
Halves Control9.0%
Storm
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Storm
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Storm

Model Confidence

72%

Storm predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 41 · Line: +8.0

2/3 match predictions correct
Coming Soon

Try Scorer Predictions

AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props