AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (360 career games). The 39-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Sharks bucked the trend — Rabbitohs historically win 59% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Sharks's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile — home teams win 56% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 74% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Sharks by 13.7 vs the actual margin of 15 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 39 — within 3 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sharks
74%
Rabbitohs
26%
AI Match Overview
Sharks are clear favourites here at 74%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Sharks ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sharks carry a 141-point ELO rating advantage (1569 vs 1428). The margin model predicts Sharks by 13.7 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.18
Winner ✓
Edge
-12.0%
Line / Spread
Sharks -14.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-12.0%
Total Points
Under 54.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+31.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | WWLLL | 20.0 |
Rabbitohs | WWLLL | 19.4 |
Avg Conceded
24.2
Sharks
28.8
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
-4.2
Sharks
-9.4
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1668
Sharks
1559
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
5.4
Sharks
2.6
Rabbitohs
Each team's win rate when Gerard Sutton refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Rabbitohs hold a 6‑point edge: 33W–23L (59%) vs Sharks's 24W–21L (53%) across all games Gerard Sutton has refereed for each side. His games average 41.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Sharks an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
41.9 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
74%
Sharks predicted to win by 14 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +13.7
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