AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (176 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Wests Tigers's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend — Wests Tigers have a 30% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Wests Tigers defied the model's 60% prediction for Dolphins — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 3.7 but the actual margin was 12 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 48 — within 5 points. Wests Tigers trailed 18–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 18–30. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Dolphins
60%
Wests Tigers
40%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Wests Tigers are far from out of this at 40%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Dolphins carry a 28-point ELO rating advantage (1404 vs 1376). Recent form favours Wests Tigers with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Dolphins. The margin model predicts Dolphins by 3.7 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @2.00
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.1%
Line / Spread
Dolphins +1.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.1%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+11.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dolphins | WLLLL | 15.6 |
Wests Tigers | WWWLL | 23.6 |
Avg Conceded
22.0
Dolphins
23.6
Wests Tigers
Avg Margin
-6.4
Dolphins
0.0
Wests Tigers
Run Metres
1688
Dolphins
1648
Wests Tigers
Line Breaks
4.0
Dolphins
4.6
Wests Tigers
Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Wests Tigers hold a 5‑point edge: 7W–16L (30%) vs Dolphins's 2W–6L (25%) across all games Peter Gough has refereed for each side. His games average 44.2 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1404 vs 1376), but the market favours Wests Tigers (@2.00).
The model sides with ELO — Dolphins predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Dolphins predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +3.7
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.