AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (99 career games). The combined score of 53 points was 7 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend — Sea Eagles have a 55% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 65% probability. The predicted margin of 6.2 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
65%
Warriors
35%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warriors. Warriors are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control — but Sea Eagles counter with Backline Quality and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 6.2 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.3%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.3%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+9.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | WWLLL | 25.2 |
Warriors | WWLLL | 20.0 |
Avg Conceded
25.6
Sea Eagles
21.2
Warriors
Avg Margin
-0.4
Sea Eagles
-1.2
Warriors
Run Metres
1681
Sea Eagles
1707
Warriors
Line Breaks
5.4
Sea Eagles
3.0
Warriors
Each team's win rate when Todd Smith refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Sea Eagles hold a 10‑point edge: 6W–5L (55%) vs Warriors's 5W–6L (45%) across all games Todd Smith has refereed for each side. His games average 45.9 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
45.9 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Warriors hold the ELO advantage (1468 vs 1460), but the market favours Sea Eagles (@1.50).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
65%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +6.2
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