NRL | Round 26

alphr.com.au

DOL
Dolphins
VS
GLD
Titans
SUNCORP STADIUM, BRISBANE • SUNDAY 31 AUG, 4:05 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Grant Atkins officiated this match (312 career games). The combined score of 66 points was 23 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Dolphins's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend — Dolphins have a 40% win rate under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 59% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Dolphins by 8.9 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The game's 66 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 46. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

59%DolphinsFavourite

Dolphins

59%

Titans

41%

AI Match Overview

Dolphins hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 41%. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Dolphins carry a 189-point ELO rating advantage (1431 vs 1242). Recent form favours Dolphins with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Dolphins by 8.9 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Dolphins to Win @1.65

Winner ✓

Edge

-11.8%

Line / Spread

Dolphins -5.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-11.8%

Total Points

Under 54.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+23.5%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Dolphins
WWLLL
26.6
Titans
WLLLL
21.6

Avg Conceded

40.4

Dolphins

30.4

Titans

Avg Margin

-13.8

Dolphins

-8.8

Titans

Run Metres

1592

Dolphins

1707

Titans

Line Breaks

6.8

Dolphins

4.6

Titans

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Dolphins
Grant Atkins312 games since 2013

Each team's win rate when Grant Atkins refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

DOL
40%4W 6L
GLD
33%10W 20L

Dolphins hold a 7‑point edge: 4W–6L (40%) vs Titans's 10W–20L (33%) across all games Grant Atkins has refereed for each side. His games average 42.9 pts, sitting close to the league average.

Avg Total

42.9 pts

Home Win %

55%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Dolphins lead 4-1
Mar 2026DOL 18 - 14 GLD
Apr 2025DOL 36 - 10 GLD
Aug 2024DOL 14 - 21 GLD
Mar 2024DOL 30 - 14 GLD
Jul 2023DOL 23 - 21 GLD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

DOL
1431Overall1242
GLD
ELO difference: +189 in favour of Dolphins

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1021Forwards1015
Best: 1184EvenBest: 1242
938Backs982
Best: 1083GLD +44Best: 1127
936Halves1121
Best: 936GLD +186Best: 1121
1200Hooker1146
DOL +54

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

DOL
Stat
GLD
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
26.6pts
Avg Score
21.6pts
40.4pts
Avg Conceded
30.4pts
-13.8pts
Avg Margin
-8.8pts
1591.8m
Run Metres
1706.8m
6.8
Line Breaks
4.6
331.2
Tackles
355.4
10.6
Errors
10.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Dolphins
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Titans
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Titans
4
Halves Control9.0%
Titans
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Dolphins
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Dolphins

Model Confidence

59%

Dolphins predicted to win by 9 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: +8.9

2/3 match predictions correct
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