NRL | Round 26

alphr.com.au

NQL
Cowboys
VS
BRI
Broncos
QUEENSLAND COUNTRY BANK STADIUM, TOWNSVILLE • SATURDAY 30 AUG, 7:35 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Ashley Klein officiated this match (379 career games). The combined score of 68 points was 25 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Broncos's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend — Broncos have a 58% win rate under this referee. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Broncos prevailed.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Broncos to win at 66% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Broncos by 5.4 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The game's 68 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 43. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

66%BroncosFavourite

Cowboys

34%

Broncos

66%

AI Match Overview

Broncos are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Cowboys. Cowboys are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including Forward Pack, Halves Control and Referee Tendency — but Broncos counter with ELO Difference and Backline Quality which tips the scales. Broncos carry a 133-point ELO rating advantage (1554 vs 1421). The margin model predicts Broncos by 5.4 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Broncos to Win @1.50

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Broncos +5.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 50.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+20.8%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Cowboys
WWWLL
28.0
Broncos
WWWLL
33.2

Avg Conceded

23.0

Cowboys

19.6

Broncos

Avg Margin

5.0

Cowboys

13.6

Broncos

Run Metres

1704

Cowboys

1710

Broncos

Line Breaks

4.2

Cowboys

6.4

Broncos

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Broncos
Ashley Klein379 games since 2010

Each team's win rate when Ashley Klein refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

NQL
45%18W 22L
BRI
58%28W 20L

Broncos hold a 13‑point edge: 28W–20L (58%) vs Cowboys's 18W–22L (45%) across all games Ashley Klein has refereed for each side. His games average 43.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Cowboys an additional edge at home.

Avg Total

43.4 pts

Home Win %

60%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Broncos lead 5-0
Mar 2025NQL 16 - 26 BRI
Aug 2024NQL 18 - 42 BRI
Mar 2024NQL 12 - 38 BRI
Aug 2023NQL 14 - 30 BRI
Mar 2023NQL 16 - 28 BRI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

NQL
1421Overall1554
BRI
ELO difference: -133 in favour of Broncos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1045Forwards1017
Best: 1261NQL +28Best: 1338
1044Backs1204
Best: 1200BRI +160Best: 1206
1137Halves1086
Best: 1137NQL +51Best: 1086
894Hooker821
NQL +74

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

NQL
Stat
BRI
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
28.0pts
Avg Score
33.2pts
23.0pts
Avg Conceded
19.6pts
5.0pts
Avg Margin
13.6pts
1704.2m
Run Metres
1710.4m
4.2
Line Breaks
6.4
346.0
Tackles
327.0
13.2
Errors
11.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Broncos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Cowboys
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Broncos
4
Halves Control9.0%
Cowboys
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Cowboys
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Cowboys

Model Confidence

66%

Broncos predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: -5.4

2/3 match predictions correct
Coming Soon

Try Scorer Predictions

AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props