NRL | Round 26

alphr.com.au

CBY
Bulldogs
VS
PEN
Panthers
ACCOR STADIUM, SYDNEY • THURSDAY 28 AUG, 7:50 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 19 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 51. Bulldogs bucked the trend — Panthers historically win 100% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Bulldogs's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 74% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 11.5 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 32 points came in 15 points lower than the predicted 47. Bulldogs led 10–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

74%BulldogsFavourite

Bulldogs

74%

Panthers

26%

AI Match Overview

Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 74%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Panthers. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including Forward Pack, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Panthers carry a 63-point ELO rating advantage (1597 vs 1534). Recent form favours Panthers with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 11.5 points with a combined total of 47.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Bulldogs to Win @2.40

Winner ✓

Edge

-18.1%

Line / Spread

Bulldogs +4.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-18.1%

Total Points

Over 32.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+35.1%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Bulldogs
WWLLL
22.8
Panthers
WWWLL
29.6

Avg Conceded

19.6

Bulldogs

16.4

Panthers

Avg Margin

3.2

Bulldogs

13.2

Panthers

Run Metres

1509

Bulldogs

1965

Panthers

Line Breaks

6.6

Bulldogs

5.8

Panthers

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Panthers
Wyatt Raymond40 games since 2024

Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

CBY
60%3W 2L
PEN
100%2W 0L

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Panthers have won 2 of 2 games (100%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 3 from 5 (60%). That's a 40‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 50.6 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Bulldogs an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 2 games for Panthers — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

50.6 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Panthers lead 5-0
Oct 2025CBY 26 - 46 PEN
Jul 2025CBY 6 - 8 PEN
May 2024CBY 10 - 16 PEN
Aug 2023CBY 18 - 44 PEN
Jun 2022CBY 18 - 30 PEN
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CBY
1534Overall1597
PEN
ELO difference: -63 in favour of Panthers

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

976Forwards858
Best: 1187CBY +117Best: 1043
966Backs929
Best: 1071CBY +37Best: 1016
1177Halves627
Best: 1177CBY +550Best: 627
1012Hooker626
CBY +386

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CBY
Stat
PEN
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
22.8pts
Avg Score
29.6pts
19.6pts
Avg Conceded
16.4pts
3.2pts
Avg Margin
13.2pts
1508.8m
Run Metres
1965.2m
6.6
Line Breaks
5.8
333.4
Tackles
393.0
10.6
Errors
9.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Panthers
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Bulldogs
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Bulldogs
4
Halves Control9.0%
Bulldogs
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Panthers
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Bulldogs
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Bulldogs

Model Confidence

74%

Bulldogs predicted to win by 12 points

Predicted total: 47 · Line: +11.5

2/3 match predictions correct
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