AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (176 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 18 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Cowboys's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend — Cowboys have a 63% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Cowboys defied the model's 61% prediction for Wests Tigers — a notable upset. The predicted margin of 2.4 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 62 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 40. Cowboys trailed 16–10 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 28–34. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 35.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
61%
Cowboys
39%
AI Match Overview
Wests Tigers hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Cowboys are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Wests Tigers ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. Recent form favours Wests Tigers with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Wests Tigers by 2.4 points with a combined total of 40.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wests Tigers to Win @1.70
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.1%
Line / Spread
Wests Tigers -2.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.1%
Total Points
Over 35.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+12.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | WWWLL | 18.2 |
Cowboys | WWLLL | 26.0 |
Avg Conceded
23.2
Wests Tigers
26.0
Cowboys
Avg Margin
-5.0
Wests Tigers
0.0
Cowboys
Run Metres
1521
Wests Tigers
1705
Cowboys
Line Breaks
4.2
Wests Tigers
3.8
Cowboys
Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Peter Gough officiates, Cowboys have won 15 of 24 games (63%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 8 from 23 (35%). That's a 28‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 44.1 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
44.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Wests Tigers predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 40 · Line: +2.4
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