AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (40 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 10 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Eels bucked the trend — Roosters historically win 50% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Eels's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Eels defied the model's 54% prediction for Roosters — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 2.3 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 40 — within 3 points. Eels led 14–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Eels
46%
Roosters
54%
AI Match Overview
Roosters hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 46%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. Roosters carry a 277-point ELO rating advantage (1634 vs 1356). Recent form favours Roosters with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Eels. The margin model predicts Roosters by 2.3 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.32
Lost ✗
Edge
-21.6%
Line / Spread
Roosters +8.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-21.6%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+7.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Eels | WWLLL | 16.6 |
Roosters | WWWLL | 32.8 |
Avg Conceded
22.8
Eels
18.6
Roosters
Avg Margin
-6.2
Eels
14.2
Roosters
Run Metres
1531
Eels
1464
Roosters
Line Breaks
4.6
Eels
3.4
Roosters
Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Roosters hold a 12‑point edge: 1W–1L (50%) vs Eels's 3W–5L (38%) across all games Wyatt Raymond has refereed for each side. His games average 50.5 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Eels an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 2 games for Roosters — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
50.5 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
54%
Roosters predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -2.3
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