AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 5 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Wests Tigers's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Wests Tigers defied the model's 53% prediction for Sea Eagles — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 1.7 but the actual margin was 14 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 38 — within 5 points. Wests Tigers led 12–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
47%
Sea Eagles
53%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Sea Eagles a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Wests Tigers are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including Backline Quality, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate — but Sea Eagles counter with ELO Difference and Forward Pack which tips the scales. Sea Eagles carry a 49-point ELO rating advantage (1418 vs 1369). Recent form favours Wests Tigers with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sea Eagles. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 1.7 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.51
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.7%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles +4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.7%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | WWWLL | 19.0 |
Sea Eagles | WWLLL | 13.6 |
Avg Conceded
26.4
Wests Tigers
23.6
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
-7.4
Wests Tigers
-10.0
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1504
Wests Tigers
1477
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
3.8
Wests Tigers
3.4
Sea Eagles
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Adam Gee officiates — Wests Tigers 17W–21L (45%) and Sea Eagles 15W–21L (42%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 42.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Wests Tigers an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -1.7
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