NRL | Round 24

alphr.com.au

NQL
Cowboys
VS
NEW
Knights
QUEENSLAND COUNTRY BANK STADIUM, TOWNSVILLE • SUNDAY 17 AUG, 4:05 PM

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 73% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 8.6 but the actual margin was 34 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 42 — within 1 points. Cowboys led 20–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 34. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

73%CowboysFavourite

Cowboys

73%

Knights

27%

AI Match Overview

Cowboys are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Knights. The model sees Cowboys ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Recent form favours Cowboys with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Knights. The margin model predicts Cowboys by 8.6 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Cowboys to Win @1.45

Winner ✓

Edge

-1.4%

Line / Spread

Cowboys -6.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-1.4%

Total Points

Under 47.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+11.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Cowboys
WLLLL
20.0
Knights
LLLLL
15.4

Avg Conceded

27.6

Cowboys

33.2

Knights

Avg Margin

-7.6

Cowboys

-17.8

Knights

Run Metres

1693

Cowboys

1596

Knights

Line Breaks

4.0

Cowboys

3.8

Knights

H2H History (Last 5)Cowboys lead 4-1
Mar 2026NQL 18 - 28 NEW
Sep 2024NQL 28 - 16 NEW
Mar 2024NQL 21 - 20 NEW
Apr 2023NQL 18 - 16 NEW
May 2022NQL 36 - 16 NEW
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

NQL
1351Overall1343
NEW
ELO difference: +8 in favour of Cowboys

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

981Forwards1050
Best: 1273NEW +69Best: 1247
1092Backs978
Best: 1190NQL +113Best: 1011
1207Halves1075
Best: 1207NQL +132Best: 1075
1062Hooker1200
NEW +138

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

NQL
Stat
NEW
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
20.0pts
Avg Score
15.4pts
27.6pts
Avg Conceded
33.2pts
-7.6pts
Avg Margin
-17.8pts
1692.6m
Run Metres
1596.2m
4.0
Line Breaks
3.8
359.6
Tackles
394.6
12.6
Errors
11.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Cowboys
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Knights
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Cowboys
4
Halves Control9.0%
Cowboys
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Cowboys
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%

Model Confidence

73%

Cowboys predicted to win by 9 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +8.6

3/3 match predictions correct
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