AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (176 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 4 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Raiders bucked the trend — Sea Eagles historically win 50% of games under Peter Gough, but couldn't convert that edge today.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 9.7 was reasonable against the actual 16-point result. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 40 — within 4 points. Raiders led 10–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 16. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Raiders
75%
Sea Eagles
25%
AI Match Overview
Raiders are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sea Eagles. The model sees Raiders ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Raiders carry a 201-point ELO rating advantage (1635 vs 1434). Recent form favours Raiders with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Sea Eagles. The margin model predicts Raiders by 9.7 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
3 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Raiders to Win @1.42
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.4%
Line / Spread
Raiders -6.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.4%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+6.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | WWWWL | 29.2 |
Sea Eagles | WWWLL | 16.8 |
Avg Conceded
18.8
Raiders
20.0
Sea Eagles
Avg Margin
10.4
Raiders
-3.2
Sea Eagles
Run Metres
1794
Raiders
1491
Sea Eagles
Line Breaks
6.2
Raiders
3.8
Sea Eagles
Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Sea Eagles hold a 6‑point edge: 8W–8L (50%) vs Raiders's 7W–9L (44%) across all games Peter Gough has refereed for each side. His games average 44.2 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Neutral
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
75%
Raiders predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +9.7
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.