AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (379 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 7 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Dragons's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile — home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Dragons defied the model's 60% prediction for Sharks — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 5.3 but the actual margin was 8 points. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Dragons
40%
Sharks
60%
AI Match Overview
Sharks hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Sharks ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Sharks carry a 189-point ELO rating advantage (1574 vs 1385). Recent form favours Sharks with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Sharks by 5.3 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.50
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.5%
Line / Spread
Sharks +5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.5%
Total Points
Over 45.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+3.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | WLLLL | 23.2 |
Sharks | WWWWL | 21.4 |
Avg Conceded
25.8
Dragons
16.8
Sharks
Avg Margin
-2.6
Dragons
4.6
Sharks
Run Metres
1697
Dragons
1735
Sharks
Line Breaks
4.2
Dragons
4.4
Sharks
Each team's win rate when Ashley Klein refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Ashley Klein officiates — Dragons 17W–22L (44%) and Sharks 25W–31L (45%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 43.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Dragons an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
43.4 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Sharks predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: -5.3
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