NRL | Round 23

alphr.com.au

CBY
Bulldogs
VS
NZL
Warriors
ACCOR STADIUM, SYDNEY • SATURDAY 9 AUG, 7:35 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Bulldogs's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 70% probability. The predicted margin of 6.0 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

70%BulldogsFavourite

Bulldogs

70%

Warriors

30%

AI Match Overview

Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warriors. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. Bulldogs carry a 61-point ELO rating advantage (1554 vs 1493). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Warriors. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 6.0 points with a combined total of 39.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Bulldogs to Win @1.30

Winner ✓

Edge

-1.5%

Line / Spread

Bulldogs -8.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

-1.5%

Total Points

Under 41.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+4.9%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Bulldogs
WWWLL
21.2
Warriors
WWLLL
20.0

Avg Conceded

16.0

Bulldogs

19.8

Warriors

Avg Margin

5.2

Bulldogs

0.2

Warriors

Run Metres

1752

Bulldogs

1668

Warriors

Line Breaks

5.0

Bulldogs

4.8

Warriors

Referee IndicatorAI
Balanced record
Adam Gee287 games since 2013

Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

CBY
48%13W 14L
NZL
48%15W 16L

Both sides have a similar record when Adam Gee officiates — Bulldogs 13W–14L (48%) and Warriors 15W–16L (48%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 42.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Bulldogs an additional edge at home.

Avg Total

42.7 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Warriors lead 3-2
Sep 2024CBY 34 - 18 NZL
Jul 2024CBY 13 - 12 NZL
May 2023CBY 12 - 24 NZL
Mar 2023CBY 14 - 16 NZL
Aug 2022CBY 18 - 42 NZL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CBY
1554Overall1493
NZL
ELO difference: +61 in favour of Bulldogs

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1054Forwards1188
Best: 1214NZL +134Best: 1342
934Backs1023
Best: 1035NZL +89Best: 1178
1075Halves947
Best: 1075CBY +128Best: 947
705Hooker600
CBY +105

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CBY
Stat
NZL
3.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
21.2pts
Avg Score
20.0pts
16.0pts
Avg Conceded
19.8pts
5.2pts
Avg Margin
0.2pts
1752.2m
Run Metres
1667.6m
5.0
Line Breaks
4.8
349.4
Tackles
358.2
11.6
Errors
9.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Bulldogs
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Warriors
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Warriors
4
Halves Control9.0%
Bulldogs
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Bulldogs
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Bulldogs
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Bulldogs

Model Confidence

70%

Bulldogs predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 39 · Line: +6.0

2/3 match predictions correct
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