AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (287 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Bulldogs's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile — home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 70% probability. The predicted margin of 6.0 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
70%
Warriors
30%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Warriors. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. Bulldogs carry a 61-point ELO rating advantage (1554 vs 1493). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Warriors. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 6.0 points with a combined total of 39.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.30
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.5%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs -8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.5%
Total Points
Under 41.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+4.9%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | WWWLL | 21.2 |
Warriors | WWLLL | 20.0 |
Avg Conceded
16.0
Bulldogs
19.8
Warriors
Avg Margin
5.2
Bulldogs
0.2
Warriors
Run Metres
1752
Bulldogs
1668
Warriors
Line Breaks
5.0
Bulldogs
4.8
Warriors
Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Adam Gee officiates — Bulldogs 13W–14L (48%) and Warriors 15W–16L (48%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 42.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Bulldogs an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
42.7 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
70%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 39 · Line: +6.0
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